White Sox infielder Jake Burger is one of the most powerful sluggers in MLB. On Thursday, he blasted his 23rd and 24th home runs of the season, fifth-best in the American League. In his third plate appearance of the game, he did something truly rare—he drew a walk.

Despite his outstanding power numbers, Burger has only accepted 18 walks this year. His 5.8% walk rate isn’t the worst in MLB, but most of the players who walk less than he does have A) very little power, B) low strikeout and high contact rates, or C) both. Burger’s 31.8% strikeout rate is the sixth-worst in MLB (minimum 300 plate appearances). Only one player matches his aversion to walks, proclivity for strikeouts, and prodigious power: his teammate Luis Robert. The center fielder is second in the AL in both home runs (28) and strikeouts (126) and has just 22 walks in 427 trips to the plate.

Both players have a chance to finish the season with at least 30 long balls and fewer than 30 walks. This has happened 30 times before in AL/NL history, but never by teammates. Most often, the players who accomplished this swung early and often, not sticking around long enough to strike out. Burger and Robert are different; they could both top 150 strikeouts. Only four players have ever posted a stat line with 30 homers, fewer than 30 walks, and at least 150 strikeouts. Only Javier Baez dared to pull the trick twice.

Player	Year	HR	BB	SO
Javier Báez	2021	31	28	184
Salvador Perez	2021	48	28	170
Javier Báez	2018	34	29	167
Butch Hobson	1977	30	27	162
Alfonso Soriano	2002	39	23	157

Robert played in his first All-Star Game this year, and deservedly so. The lack of walks is just about the only flaw in his game. He buoys his on-base percentage with a decent batting average and he’s been plunked ten times this year. His overall slash line is .267/.322/.553, which is good for a 135 OPS+. He’s the perfect model of how to be a productive hitter without taking many walks.

Burger’s OPS+ is 114, which is also good, but belies one of the flaws of combining on-base percentage and slugging. He’s slugging .528, which would be fourth in the AL if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. However, his contact rate (66.9%) and BABIP (.230) are both fifth-lowest in MLB. Some of this is bad luck, but his slash line is .217/.273/.528. The only two players in MLB with 300 plate appearances and a lower on-base percentage are Javier Báez (of course) and Shea Langeliers at .259 and .264, respectively. 30 home runs and a sub-.280 on-base percentage has only happened five times before:

Player	Year	HR	OBP
Tony Armas	1983	36	.254
Dave Kingman	1986	35	.255
Cory Snyder	1987	33	.273
Tony Batista	2004	32	.272
Rougned Odor	2017	30	.252

Burger probably won’t sink below Odor’s .252 mark, but he could threaten Armas for the most homers with an on-base percentage below .280. What’s most remarkable about his campaign is that he’s still an overall good hitter! That 114 OPS+ means he’s 14% better than league-average offensive production, solely fueled by power. In the last 100 years, only one qualified player has posted a 100 OPS+ or better with an on-base percentage below .280, and even that comes with a caveat. In 2020, Miguel Sanó had a 105 OPS+ despite a .278 on-base percentage, but that was during the 60-game pandemic year.

It’s worth repeating that Burger and Robert are two of the White Sox’s best hitters. Andrew Benintendi‘s 35 walks lead the team, and no one else even has 30. Their 252 walks are the lowest total in MLB and their .295 on-base percentage is second-worst. Robert is a legitimate star who would fit in any lineup. Burger’s all-or-nothing approach would work if he was surrounded by a more balanced cast, but he isn’t. The club is entering into a rebuild, having already traded away Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. This time around, they should try to develop some hitters who actually get on base from time to time.

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Kenley Jansen is one of the most imposing closers to ever grace the game of baseball. His brute 6’5” 265 Ibs frame evokes Undertaker vibes while the slight pause in his vertical pitching motion makes him look like he’s uncorking a slingshot.

This year, Jansen’s first season with the Boston Red Sox, is a special one for the righty. Earlier in the season, he became the eighth closer in MLB history to reach 400 saves, and he now ranks seventh all-time in the category after recently passing Craig Kimbrel. Most importantly, he said that he’s in a better mental space now than he was a couple of years ago in his last season with the Dodgers.

It’s safe to say that Jansen is at the age (35) where legacy is starting to creep into conversations. The more accolades and milestones accrued, the more roundtable debates about where one stands in the history of the game.

Hall-of-Fame conversations understandably sprung after Jansen earned that 400^th save back in May against the Atlanta Braves, but one has to wonder if that achievement is enough in a sport where the barrier to entry for the Hall is undeniably more difficult to surpass than that of other sports.

In Jansen’s case, the resume is beginning to corroborate such a prestigious honor. His 88.2 % save percentage ranks fourth among closers with 400 or more saves and he’s fostered four seasons with 40 or more saves, including 2017, when he finished fifth in MVP. He also holds a 2.48 career ERA, which ranks better than all eight closers in the Hall-of-Fame other than the infallible Mariano Rivera. He also won a World Series with the Dodgers in 2020, the team he was with for the first 11 seasons of his career.

But what really separates Jansen from the pack is his incredible strikeout prowess. His K/9 ratio (an incredible 12.87) is the best among relievers who’ve pitched at least 800 innings in their career (yes, even better than Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez), and his K/BB ratio is superb. Jansen’s 4.77 (K/BB) career mark trails only Dennis Eckersley’s 6.29. But, remember, Eckersley carried a slight advantage beginning his career as a starter, too, meaning he had more opportunities to increase that mark.

You can credit that indelible strikeout/walk ratio to a three-year run in 2015-2017, where Jansen’s strikeout percentage crossed 40 percent every year and his walk percentage never surpassed 4.5 %. In his best year, 2017, he conceived a 42.4 % strikeout percentage and a 2.7 walk percentage. That’s an unbelievable 15.57 K/BB, a single-season mark that hasn’t been emulated amongst the greatest closers of all time. The dude was about as accurate in those years as Austin Butler’s portrayal of Elvis Presley.

During those years, his whiff, walk, strikeout, chase rate, and fastball spin were always in the 95^th percentile or above, meaning that, at the height of his prime, Jansen was about as good as any reliever in baseball.

Despite these ample positives, there are many considerations involving a Jansen Hall-of-Fame jacket. The most prestigious honor is already a wildly difficult threshold to achieve, but then you have guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who raised the bar for closers to stratospheric heights by being the only two in history with 600-plus saves. Those legends could surpass 45 to 50 saves a year in their sleep. You can’t just have really good stats like Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers anymore; you have to be somewhat transcendent.

We’re already seeing that tough barrier-to-entry for closers play out in real-time, especially for someone like Billy Wagner, who’s been on the ballot for quite a while now.

Wagner finished with 422 saves in 903 innings during his career, a mark Jansen will surely pass when it’s all said and done (remember, Jansen already has 411 in a little over 800 innings). According to Baseball Reference, Jansen also surpasses Wagner in save percentage and SO/BB ratio but trails him in ERA (Wagner had a 2.31 career ERA compared to Jansen’s 2.48).

In a recent Forbes article, it was reported that Wagner is closing in on the 75% mark for election into the Hall after being a holdover for the past eight years. His making it during the next round looks good for Jansen’s chances, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes that long for Jansen too depending how the rest of his career goes.

The other aspect of Jansen’s career to consider is his playoff performances, which are still good, but a tad choppier than his regular season ones.

His 2.20 career ERA in the postseason is still excellent, but there are individual series where he struggled. For example, he is 0-2 with a 4.40 ERA in his World Series career.

He posted a 10.80 ERA against the Rays during the 2020 World Series, and surrendered three runs in eight innings against the Astros in the 2017 World Series after posting the best regular season of his career.

With such a small size, those numbers can feel inflated though, and his insanely high SO/9 line still mirrors his regular season numbers. It’s a shame he couldn’t win at least one or two more with the Dodgers (especially during that 2017 year) but there were many other factors that prevented the LA from losing key playoff games in those playoff runs.

So, will Jansen be a Hall-of-Famer? I honestly think there is no question he is. Jansen’s never led the league in saves in his career, which may hurt him, but at 35, he’s still has a lot left in the tank, and there’s definitely a possibility he jumps some guys in front of him when it comes to saves. Only the equally dominant Craig Kimbrel is on his tail at this point (410 saves).

He recently said he’s doing a lot better mentally too, and finished second in the league in saves in 2022 with 41 while with Atlanta.

His sinker/slider combo is still pretty dominant too (34 % whiff rate), though not as lethal as in his prime. Still, closers can excel well past 35 years old since they don’t carry as strenuous of a workload as starters. If Jansen continues to play to his strengths, he can pitch for at least another five years. And, if he stays with the Red Sox, he’ll be with a burgeoning team that could contend for multiple playoff spots in the future, which means Jansen will have opportunities to cement himself with more October appearances.

The Hall-of-Fame is a difficult barrier to conquer, but Jansen’s incredible prime, recent 400-save milestone, and consistent play give him a superb shot. 

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Marketing is just as important in the sports world as it is in other sectors. If you don’t have a strong marketing strategy, then it’s going to be hard to succeed. Read on to examine some essential sports marketing strategies. This just might help you to decide which route you want to take with your organization.

Know the Audience You’re Targeting

To get the best results, it’s wise to target a specific audience with your marketing campaign. You won’t be able to produce a marketing campaign that will be as effective for each demographic. Knowing the audience that you’re targeting will allow you to fine-tune your marketing strategy. You can do a bit of research about the desired demographic and then tailor your marketing to that group.

Ensure That Your Content Is Engaging

Marketing content needs to be as engaging as possible. If you produce bland and overly simple content, no one is going to care about it. Engaging content makes people want to be a part of the conversation. Do what you can to pull people in with engaging content that is relevant to their interests.

Build Brand Partnerships and Get Sponsors

Building brand partnerships and getting sponsors can help your sports organization a lot. This is a great way to get money coming in that can be used for various purposes. You should try to reach out to brands that make sense. Local sporting goods stores or beverage manufacturers might be a sensible place to start.

Social Media Matters

Social media might be the most powerful marketing tool that you have available to you. Reaching out on social media is essentially free, and you can market your organization well if you know what you’re doing.

Focus on the social media platforms that matter the most to the key demographic that you wish to appeal to. You’ll be able to engage with fans on social media, and it should help to boost the popularity of your sports organization.

Keeping up with emerging trends is crucial to your success. Social media presence matters more than television ads in modern times. Try to use the tools available to you to find the success that you’re hoping for.

The post Essential Sports Marketing Strategies first appeared on Louis DeTitto's Sports Blog.

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Despite some people’s claims that entrepreneurs are not made, anyone can learn a few characteristics that make them successful. The term entrepreneur has a wide variety of traits and behaviors.

Entrepreneurs typically put in more work hours than their employees and take on more risks. Despite the odds, many people launch new businesses each year.Some will be incredibly successful, while others will fail. The success of a new business is usually the result of the entrepreneur’s vision and ability.

Motivation

Motivated entrepreneurs are driven by the desire to pursue their dreams. They put in the time and money necessary to get their businesses off the ground, knowing that it could take them a long time to realize their goals.

Despite their hard work, many entrepreneurs fail. They know that their entrepreneurial spirit will not be rewarded with success. They refuse to give up on their goals and must maintain a steely focus to persevere.

Passion

Successfulentrepreneurs are passionate about their businesses. It’s hard work and hard to put in long hours if you don’t love what you’re doing. Having passion helps motivate people to keep working toward their goals.

Curiosity

Unlike other organizational leaders, successful entrepreneurs are known to remain curious. This allows them to keep looking for new ways to improve their businesses. Instead of settling for what they see, they often ask questions to find new ways to improve their operations.

Motivated entrepreneurs are driven by the desire to constantly challenge the status quo. This can lead them to find new ways to improve their businesses.

Vision

Entrepreneurs should have a vision of what they want to achieve and the people they need to reach their goals. A goal-oriented vision helps them visualize their opportunities and determine how to achieve them. They can also translate their vision so investors and staff members can understand. Having a network allows entrepreneurs to find people who they can work with.

Tenacity

Despite the rough times they encounter,entrepreneurs can still persevere. They are known to accept rejection and learn from their mistakes. They’re also willing to modify their plans to be successful next time.

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Baseball betting has become extremely popular among sports bettors across the world. The game has an exciting and unpredictable nature that can provide a great thrill. Unlike in other sports, one has to consider many different points of view, including statistical information, game dynamics, and the psychological factor. This combination of factors makes it a great game to bet on, and many people make their living betting on baseball as a source of income. 

Baseball betting may be enjoyable for many reasons. To begin with, it carries a feeling of tradition and nostalgia, as the game dates back to the late 19th century. There is also a certain romanticism associated with betting on the game, where you can capture the drama of the stands, ballpark atmosphere, and excitement of the game itself. 

Additionally, baseball betting offers significant potential returns. People can feel like they have a great grasp of the game, and with the points system, it’s essentially the same as investing in stocks and bonds – only much more exciting! Baseball betting also offers the opportunity to apply individual skills and knowledge, and bettors often develop strategies and systems to help them identify value in the lines. 

Plus, with the advent of online sportsbooks, baseball betting has never been easier. You can quickly and easily find an online sportsbook, review the available lines, and make your bets from the comfort of your own home. This convenience has made it easier than ever before for people to bet on the game and has led to a greater rise in popularity. You can even be using cryptocurrency now. Crypto sports betting is a thing now and despite it being relatively new, it has already grown in popularity due to its secure and anonymous nature. 

Regardless of where you place your bet, the deciding factor for your win will come up to what strategy you use and whether it’s the right one, especially for the new and more modern platforms available today.

Strategies for Modern Platforms 

Modern baseball betting platforms offer many advantages over traditional physical bookmakers. These platforms have become easier to use, faster to make wagers on, and offer a wider spectrum of opportunities for bettors. As such, more and more people are taking advantage of these platforms when placing their bets on baseball games. 

One major advantage of using online sportsbooks is that they offer better value for your money. Traditional bookmakers set the lines on their sportsbooks, meaning it is more difficult for them to provide value for each bet. On the other hand, online platforms have access to a larger pool of information which allows them to provide more value. This means that bettors can increase their chances of winning and make more money by betting on these platforms. 

Furthermore, modern baseball betting platforms have also made baseball wagering more accessible. It is now much easier and faster to make bets, and information about popular teams and players is easily available. This means that novice bettors can quickly get up to speed and start making better bets. 

Despite their advantages, however, people still have to be careful when placing bets on modern baseball betting platforms. It is important to remember that the same strategies which apply to traditional betting still work on modern platforms, and it is essential to have a strong understanding of baseball games and the relevant statistics and trends to be successful. Here are some tips to help you: 

1. Start off small with your wagers. Always start with small bets until you get the hang of things and build up your confidence. 

2. Do your research before placing your bets. Take the time to research the teams you are betting on and the underlying trends in the game. 

3. Set yourself realistic expectations and goals. Baseball betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme, so it is important to set realistic goals and expectations. 

4. Track your progress and adjust your strategies accordingly. Don’t be afraid to experiment and try out different strategies to find out what works best for you. 

5. Utilize modern platforms to your advantage. Take advantage of the data-driven tools which many modern platforms offer to better understand the game and make more accurate predictions. 

By following these guidelines, you can maximize your chances of making money from modern baseball betting platforms. With the right strategies and the right approach, you can make a living from the comfort of your own home.

To Sum Up 

In conclusion, baseball betting is a great way to make money while enjoying the game. With modern platforms making it easier than ever to place bets, and the potential for returns being very high, it is no surprise that baseball wagering is becoming increasingly popular. To find success when betting on baseball, it is important to follow the tips outlined in the article and to do your research before placing any bets. By doing this, you’ll increase your chances of earning some extra cash.

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As we reach the halfway point of the MLB season, there are players at every position having great years and others having very disappointing years. The best of the best are being voted into the All-Star game, while the rest will be getting a few days off next week. With roughly a half-season of games in the books, we know what a player has done and feel like we know what a player will do.

Humans are inherently fallible, though, and prone to bias. One very common bias that comes into play for baseball fans is recency bias, which is the tendency to overemphasize the importance of the latest information when estimating future events. In this case, the first half of the season is the most-recent information we have, so we are prone to being heavily influenced by those numbers.

With this in mind, I found a pair of players at each position who are currently having very different hitting seasons, but who also have very similar rest-of-season projections according to THE BAT X projections at FanGraphs. THE BAT X projections were created by Derek Carty. They incorporate an incredible amount of data, including statistics from past seasons and the current season, along with Statcast data like hard hit rate, exit velocity, and launch angle. An introduction to THE BAT X can be found at FanGraphs through this link.

For this article, hitting is all that matters. Defense is a separate issue. To compare each player’s offensive contributions, I’m using the metric wRC+ which stands for Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is based on wOBA, which credits a hitter for the value of each outcome, such as singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, and times hit by pitch. Basically, it takes into account what a player does in his time at the plate.

The cool thing about wRC+ is that it adjusts for ballpark effects and run environment so that league average each year is 100. It’s a more reasonable way to compare hitters who play half their games in hitter-friendly Coors Field with hitters who play half their games in a more pitcher-friendly park. Or to compare players from the high-offense 1930s with those who played in the low-offense 1960s. The important thing to remember is that 100 is league average. A wRC+ higher than 100 means that hitter is above average and lower than 100 is below average.

The chart below, courtesy FanGraphs, is a handy shortcut to understanding what is meant by a 115 wRC+ versus, say, a 90 wRC+. I’ve added players this year that correspond to each level.

Mookie Betts has a 140 wRC+. This means he’s been 40 percent better than league average on offense. That’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team. Javier Baez, on the other hand, has been awful. His 63 wRC+ means he’s been 37 percent worse than league average on offense. No All-Star game for him.

Each position pair below has an accompanying chart that shows the pre-season projections for the two players, their current statistics through June 29, and their rest-of-season projections from THE BAT X. In many cases, one of the two players was projected in the pre-season to be significantly better than the other but has had a terrible first half and the two projections are now essentially the same going forward. Most of these will be surprising and you’ll have your doubts for sure. I know I do. But at the end of the season, we’ll revisit this and see just how it all played out.

We’re covering surprising outfielders and DH’s here, and we covered the other positions in this other post on surprising infielders.

Left Field--Taylor Ward versus Corbin Carroll

It wasn’t until his fourth season in the major leagues that Taylor Ward was an above average hitter. That was two years ago when he had a 110 wRC+ in 65 games. Last year, he broke out with a .281/.360/.473 season and even that was a roller-coaster ride, as he was incredible in April and May (221 wRC+), dreadful in June, July, and August (78 wRC+), then very good again in September and October (174 wRC+).

Ward got off to a slow start this year and was hitting .220/.295/.312 (69 wRC+) through May 28. He’s upped his game since then, hitting .278/.345/.495 (129 wRC+) and THE BAT X projects he’ll continue to hit like he has over the last month rather than how he hit before then.

Corbin Carroll is running away with the NL Rookie of the Year Award and behind only Ronald Acuña Jr. in the race for the NL MVP Award. With 17 homers and 24 steals around the mid-point of the season, he has a chance for a 30-HR/50-SB season, which has only happened twice in MLB history. Those two times were accomplished within four years of each other when Eric Davis hit 37 homers and stole 50 bases in 1987 and Barry Bonds hit 33 dingers and stole 52 bags in 1990.

Despite his great half-season, Carroll is projected to hit slightly worse than Taylor Ward from this point forward. Specifically, THE BAT X projects Carroll to regress in slugging percentage and batting average, which would also reduce his on-base percentage. One reason behind the regression is Carroll’s Statcast data that show a .257 expected batting average versus his actual .290 average and a .449 expected slugging percentage versus his actual .559 slugging percentage.

Center Field--Michael A. Taylor versus Jose Siri

Michael A. Taylor and Jose Siri were both projected to be below-average hitters coming into the season. They’ve been particularly bad at getting on base throughout their careers. Both have continued to be bad at getting on base, but have hit with more power than expected, particularly so in the case of Jose Siri and his 15 homers and .548 slugging percentage.

THE BAT X must not believe in the Tampa Bay Rays devil magic because it isn’t buying what Jose Siri is selling. The system has upped his pre-season projection from an 80 wRC+ to a 93 wRC+ going forward, which is a nice jump that takes into account how well he’s hit so far. Still, that’s slightly below Michael A. Taylor’s projected 97 wRC+, which would be his best since 2017. It’s not clear what the system sees with Taylor. He hasn’t had a wOBA over .300 since 2017, yet THE BAT X projects him to have a .309 wOBA from here on out. Very peculiar.

Right Field--Starling Marte versus Lane Thomas

Starling Marte is one of the many problems with the 2023 New York Mets. After years of above-average offensive production, Marte is having the worst season of his career. His on-base percentage is slightly above .300, versus a career .343 OBP, and his slugging percentage has fallen into an abyss at .329, well short of his .446 career mark. The main thing he’s still doing well is stealing bases, with 21 at the halfway point of the season. Despite it all, THE BAT X projects him to hit closer to his pre-season projection over the rest of the season than what he’s done so far.

Lane Thomas is on a very short list of Washington Nationals players who have a chance to be the team’s lone representative at the All-Star Game in Seattle this year (before he gets traded to a contender in late July). He didn’t make the first cut, even though he leads the team in home runs, runs scored, RBI, and wRC+. THE BAT X isn’t buying in, though, projecting Thomas with a league average 99 wRC+ from this point on, which is just slightly higher than his pre-season projection. Basically, THE BAT X believes Lane Thomas is who they thought he was.

Designated Hitter--Byron Buxton versus J.D. Martinez

Byron Buxton has been roughly a league average hitter through the first half of this season, but since the start of the 2021 season, he has a 136 wRC+. THE BAT X projects him to have a 132 wRC+ going forward, so the system hasn’t been swayed much by Buxton’s first-half mediocrity.

It’s a similar story for J.D. Martinez, who has a 124 wRC+ since the start of the 2021 season. He’s been a bit better than that in the first half of this year and THE BAT X expects that to continue, but not at the level of Buxton.

Bonus Battle--Mike Trout versus Shohei Ohtani

For a typical player, a 136 wRC+ through 81 games is a very good first half, often times worth of a spot on the All-Star team. For Mike Trout, it’s a three-month slump, and merely his 10th straight fan-selected start. Before this year, he’s never had a full season with a wRC+ below 160 or a slugging percentage below .500, yet here he is.

Trout’s most well-known teammate, Shohei Ohtani, has been a good hitter in his career, but he’s taken it to a whole new level this year. His 29 homers and 184 wRC+ lead all qualifying hitters (editor’s note: Ohtani is up to 31 homers, and may very well hit another before this gets published). He was particularly en fuego in June, with a .392/.484/.931 batting line. That’s a 273 wRC+.

THE BAT X has taken all this into account and concluded that, over the remainder of the season, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani will be roughly equal offensively. Ohtani has ascended to Trout’s level on offense. It remains to be seen whether that would be enough to get the Angels into the postseason for the first time since 2014.

The post Surprising Outfielders with Rest of Season Projections appeared first on Off The Bench.

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As we reach the halfway point of the MLB season, there are players at every position having great years and others having very disappointing years. The best of the best are being voted into the All-Star game, while the rest will be getting a few days off next week. With roughly a half-season of games in the books, we know what a player has done and feel like we know what a player will do.

Humans are inherently fallible, though, and prone to bias. One very common bias that comes into play for baseball fans is recency bias, which is the tendency to overemphasize the importance of the latest information when estimating future events. In this case, the first half of the season is the most-recent information we have, so we are prone to being heavily influenced by those numbers.

With this in mind, I found a pair of players at each position who are currently having very different hitting seasons, but who also have very similar rest-of-season projections according to THE BAT X projections at FanGraphs. THE BAT X projections were created by Derek Carty. They incorporate an incredible amount of data, including statistics from past seasons and the current season, along with Statcast data like hard hit rate, exit velocity, and launch angle. An introduction to THE BAT X can be found at FanGraphs through this link.

For this article, hitting is all that matters. Defense is a separate issue. To compare each player’s offensive contributions, I’m using the metric wRC+ which stands for Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is based on wOBA, which credits a hitter for the value of each outcome, such as singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, and times hit by pitch. Basically, it takes into account what a player does in his time at the plate.

The cool thing about wRC+ is that it adjusts for ballpark effects and run environment so that league average each year is 100. It’s a more reasonable way to compare hitters who play half their games in hitter-friendly Coors Field with hitters who play half their games in a more pitcher-friendly park. Or to compare players from the high-offense 1930s with those who played in the low-offense 1960s. The important thing to remember is that 100 is league average. A wRC+ higher than 100 means that hitter is above average and lower than 100 is below average.

The chart below, courtesy FanGraphs, is a handy shortcut to understanding what is meant by a 115 wRC+ versus, say, a 90 wRC+. I’ve added players this year that correspond to each level.

Mookie Betts has a 140 wRC+. This means he’s been 40 percent better than league average on offense. That’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team. Javier Baez, on the other hand, has been awful. His 63 wRC+ means he’s been 37 percent worse than league average on offense. No All-Star game for him.

Each position pair below has an accompanying chart that shows the pre-season projections for the two players, their current statistics through June 29, and their rest-of-season projections from THE BAT X. In many cases, one of the two players was projected in the pre-season to be significantly better than the other but has had a terrible first half and the two projections are now essentially the same going forward. Most of these will be surprising and you’ll have your doubts for sure. I know I do. But at the end of the season, we’ll revisit this and see just how it all played out.

We’re covering infielders here, and we’ll cover the other positions in this other post on surprising outfielders and DH’s.

Catcher--Willson Contreras versus Sean Murphy

Willson Contreras signed a 5-year, $87.5 million free-agent contract with the St. Louis Cardinals in the offseason with the expectations that he would hit 20-25 homers, have an OBP around .350 and a slugging percentage around .450. He hasn’t come close to that kind of production in the first half and is in the midst of the worst hitting season of his career. He’s one of the reasons the Cardinals are having their worst season in recent memory.

Sean Murphy joined Atlanta as part of a three-team trade in which the primary pieces for each team were William Contreras (Willson’s younger brother) going from Atlanta to Milwaukee, Esteury Ruiz going from Milwaukee to Oakland, and Murphy going from Oakland to Atlanta. Murphy has been the best of the three, currently sporting a career-high 150 wRC+ and his 13 homers at the halfway point are just five short of the career-high 18 homers he hit last year.

Despite the current 61-point gap between Contreras (89 wRC+) and Murphy (150 wRC+), THE BAT X projections have Contreras with an almost identical wRC+ as Murphy from this point forward (125 to 126). Taking a closer look, Contreras’ batted ball metrics are very much in line with his typical season, but he’s just not getting the results you’d expect. He has a .263 expected batting average versus a .215 actual batting average and a .460 expected slugging versus a .369 actual slugging. THE BAT X is projecting that Contreras will get back to being the guy the Cardinals thought he was when they signed him last December.

As for Murphy, while he’s not expected to keep up his current 150 wRC+, his rest-of-season projected wRC+ is 15 points higher than it was in the pre-season. One outlier when looking at his numbers is his .338 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He’s never had a BABIP higher than .290 before this year and his career BABIP is .286. If/when his BABIP regresses, his overall numbers will fall. We’ll have to check back in October to see how close Contreras and Murphy’s second-half numbers end up being.

First Base--Jose Abreu versus LaMonte Wade Jr.

Jose Abreu signed a 3-year, $58.5 million contract with the Astros in the offseason and it has been a disaster so far. After nine seasons with the White Sox in which his wRC+ ranged from a low of 114 to a high of 167, Abreu has been well below average at the plate this season. Meanwhile, LaMonte Wade Jr. is having a career year for the Giants, with a wRC+ that is 30 points higher than his career mark and 53 points higher than last season, when he hit .207/.305/.359.

Despite the 73-point gap in wRC+ between Abreu and Wade, THE BAT X projects them to have the same wRC+ going forward. We’re already seeing a turnaround with Abreu. Since June 8, he’s hit .314/.333/.600, good for a wRC+ of 152. All five of his home runs this season has come in this recent 17-game stretch.

Wade is projected to slow down significantly, but it hasn’t happened yet. He’s been well above average offensively every month of the season. Walking 17.1 percent of the time is a big part of his game. That’s the third-highest walk rate among 154 qualifying hitters, behind Juan Soto and Ryan Noda and ahead of Andrew McCutchen and Will Smith.

Second Base--Miguel Vargas versus Luis Arraez

This is bound to make people angry. Miguel Vargas is below the Mendoza Line and Luis Arraez is trying to be the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams. Arraez’ batting average is almost double Vargas’ .199. How can they be compared?

It’s true, Luis Arraez is having an incredibly fun season as he reaches the halfway point with a batting average close to .400. He’s already had three 5-hit games, two 4-hit games, and six 3-hit games. People are writing about the possibility he actually hits .400 this year, which would be the most impressive .400 season ever when you consider the low league-wide batting average environment, the amount he’ll travel, the number of pitchers he’ll face, the advances in pitch design, the caliber of athletes in today’s game, and the expansion of the player pool to include non-white players, which wasn’t the case when Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941.

THE BAT X projections have no room for sentimentality. Just give it the data, please. Arraez is hitting .392, but his xBA (expected Batting Average) is just .337. His .405 BABIP is the second-highest in baseball among qualifying hitters, behind only Brandon Marsh’s .411. That will regress closer to his career .348 BABIP. His statcast numbers show a low Hard-Hit Percentage (23%) and few barrels (2.2%).

THE BAT X projects Arraez to hit .310 going forward, which is an increase over his projected .299 batting average in the pre-season. At the same time, his projected slugging percentage is lower than it was in the preseason. Based on whatever is under the hood in THE BAT X projections, Arraez has a lower rest-of-season projected wRC+ (113) than he had in the pre-season (119).

While THE BAT X projects Arraez to come crashing back to earth, the system projects Miguel Vargas to significantly pick up the pace by hitting for a much better batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than he has so far, so much so that he’s projected to be a slightly better overall hitter than Arraez from this point forward.

Third Base--Eugenio Suarez versus Isaac Paredes

Eugenio Suarez and Isaac Paredes had very similar wRC+ projections in the pre-season (110 to 111). Suarez has struggled so far, particularly in the power department, while Paredes is one of a number of Tampa Bay Rays hitters having great seasons. Their current numbers suggest a massive difference between them, with Paredes’ wRC+ more than 50 points higher.

The expected stats for these players tell a different story.

Suarez:

• .225 BA, .233 xBA
• .353 SLG, .464 xSLG
• .296 wOBA, .342 xwOBA

Paredes:

• .264 BA, .218 xBA
• .483 SLG, .345 xSLG
• .370 wOBA, .305 xwOBA

It’s like a Freaky Friday situation, with Suarez’ actual stats looking very much like Paredes’ expected stats. THE BAT X projects both players will regress towards their expected stats from opposite directions and ultimately have a very similar wRC+ over the rest of the season.

Shortstop--Carlos Correa versus Bo Bichette

Coming into this season, Carlos Correa had a career 130 wRC+. At the midway point this year, his wRC+ is 90. Given that he’s only 28 years old, it’s not all that surprising that THE BAT X projects him to get back to being the hitter he was during the first eight years of his career versus the last few months.

It’s a similar story for Bo Bichette. He came into this season with a career 127 wRC+. At the midway point this year, he’s at 140. THE BAT X projects him to return to being the hitter he’s been during the first four years of his career.

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Kyle Higashioka stepped into the batters box in the top of the ninth on Wednesday, June 28 for the most distracted plate appearance of his life. The Yankees were ahead 11-0 and had scored three runs in the inning. All he wanted to do was get back behind the plate, where he had already caught eight perfect innings from Domingo Germán.

The trouble was that the Yankees couldn’t stop scoring. Germán was visibly uncomfortable in the dugout, anxious to get back out to the mound to finish his historic performance. His teammates surely would’ve obliged, but muscle memory kicked in when A’s reliever Sam Long kept hanging breaking pitches. There was even a throwing error by third baseman Jonah Bride extending the inning. Higashioka was the seventh batter, and he mercifully made the final out, releasing his pitcher from purgatory.

Catching a perfect game is almost as difficult as throwing one and arguably even more stressful. Only 21 players have done it in AL/NL history since 1901, with one player catching two different perfectos. They all made it to the majors in part because they could hit at least a little bit, but their offense was a secondary focus on those days, becoming less of a priority as tension crescendo-ed in later innings.

Unsurprisingly, the catchers catching perfectos didn’t hit well. On the days of the 22 modern perfect games, catchers went 18 for 75 with a .240/.278/.360 slash line. This is a small sample size plucked from individual games dating back to Cy Young‘s perfecto on May 5, 1904. (His catcher, Lou Criger, went 1-3 with a double and a strikeout.) It’s also not that far off from a typical backup catcher’s offensive production.

However, these catchers averaged a 98 OPS+ in the season in which they caught perfect games and 94 OPS+ over their careers. They were, in general, roughly league-average hitters, which makes them above average for catchers—an overall weaker-hitting position group. They include three Hall of Famers (Yogi Berra, Iván Rodríguez, and Ray Schalk) and one future Hall of Famer (Buster Posey).

There were a few interesting offensive performances. Only one of them hit a home run—Pudge Rodríguez during Kenny Rogers‘ perfect game on July 28, 1994. Jay Clarke went 0-3 with three strikeouts when he caught Addie Joss on October 2, 1908. Joss only struck out three batters that day, which is as many as his catcher had at the plate.

Higashioka’s fly out to end the top of the ninth was his fifth plate appearance. He went 1-5 on the day with a double in the fifth. The only other perfect-game catcher with five plate appearances was Posey, who went 2-5 with a double while catching Matt Cain on June 13, 2012.

Remember the guy who caught two perfect games? That was Ron Hassey. His first was Len Barker‘s on May 15, 1981. A little over ten years later on July 28, 1991, he was behind the plate for Dennis Martinez‘s. Like most catchers, he was hardly fleet of foot, but he was the only catcher to attempt a stolen base while catching a perfecto. He stole 14 bases in 24 attempts over his 14-year career, and 1991 was his final season. What a perfect time to steal!

The 1991 game actually began as a double-perfecto. Neither Martinez nor opposing pitcher Mike Morgan allowed a baserunner through five innings. Morgan lost his no-hitter in the sixth, but the game remained a shutout. In the top of the seventh, the Expos broke through for a run on Larry Walker‘s two-out RBI triple. Hassey came up next and reached on an error with Walker scoring. With his pitcher waiting in the dugout chasing perfection and a few runs in the bank, the 38-year-old veteran backstop, who had already caught a prior perfecto, took off for second base on the second pitch of the next at bat. He was nabbed for the third out. It was the final stolen base attempt of his career.

A good catcher has to do whatever the pitcher needs. When he’s at the plate or on the bases, that usually means helping to score as many runs as possible, just like the rest of the lineup. During a perfect game, there are exceptions. No one would ever accuse Hassey of getting caught stealing on purpose or Higashioka of flying out quickly to end the top of the ninth on Wednesday, but no one would blame them either.

-Daniel R. Epstein

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There is plenty of discussion among modern baseball fans and media about how to properly evaluate big league baseball players. Although we’ve come a long way in being able to assign a relatively fair number to a player’s total on-field contributions through the various iterations of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), even the most ardent stat heads agree there are many contributions a player can make to his team that are ….difficult to quantify.

Historically speaking, many fans feel certain players are underrated because they made contributions to their teams that couldn’t be measured with a number. Conversely, the analytically inclined among us feel many players don’t get their due respect precisely because we have measurements and numbers that tell us they were better players than we initially realized when compared to their contemporaries.

Today we’re going to talk about Tony Phillips, who I can tell you quite confidently, is vastly underrated by both fans who prefer intangibles, and fans who like to assign value through meticulous measurements. Let’s start with the value that is difficult to measure.

Tony Phillips was a switch hitter and with a career 112 wRC+ over 9,110 career PA. He had a seven season mid-career stretch with a 119 wRC+. Of course, we know that switch hitters are valuable. According to Baseball Reference, in 2023 a batter with the platoon advantage gains between 46 and 69 points in OPS, depending on the matchup. That’s a massive competitive advantage that a switch hitter’s manager has before and during every game. It makes it easier to fill out a lineup card as it’s easier to split up lefties and righties, and it makes life far more complex for the opposing manager when it comes time to match up relievers in the late innings, whether the switch hitter is in the lineup or looming on the bench as a possible pinch hitter. So although we can somewhat measure how much the individual benefits from being a switch hitter, it’s impossible to know how valuable that skill is to his manager and team over 162 games.

Similarly, the role of “utility player” is a role that’s very hard to assess, and I’d venture that we as fans underrate the impact a good hitter who can play virtually every position has on a team over 162 games. Phillips, if you’re curious, played at least 97 career games at seven different positions, but played his most common position of second base only 782 times out of his 2,161 career games (so only about a third of the time).

Generally, the utility player is viewed as a part timer who can give many of your starters a day off when necessary. Yet one who is good enough to play every day (as Phillips was) has far more impact than that, particularly when a starting regular position player gets injured.

Most MLB teams are designed similarly. They play their nine best players regularly, and the 10^th best position player is one who may have a flaw or two that prohibits him from being a regular, but for the most part is a legitimate big-league player. Eventually you get to position player number thirteen on the roster who far more often than not is a fungible player, who you wouldn’t notice was replaced with a minor leaguer if you didn’t see the name and number on the jersey.

Mister roster spot 13 of 13 can be forced into regular duty when the starter who plays his position is injured. That can be a big blow to a team over the course of a few weeks or a month. Yet that situation – having to give a replacement-level player regular playing time due to another player’s injury – never happens if you have Tony Phillips on your team. A better than average hitter who can play every position competently, as Phillips was and could, allows a manager to put nine real big leaguers on the field every day even when a regular is injured.

For example, let’s say your starting center fielder gets injured, and he’ll be out for a month. Ideally, you’d like to get your next best player (the 10^th best player on your team) who as we said, is usually a legitimate major leaguer, into the lineup in place of the injured player. But you can’t do that if he’s a third baseman who’s never played the outfield. Now you’re stuck playing the replacement-level player every day for no other reason than he was an outfielder in the minors.

But if your starting third baseman is Tony Phillips, who can play center field, you can put him in center field and get your 10th best player who can play third base in the lineup instead of the 13^th roster spot guy in center every day. Over the course of a few weeks or a month having to play your worst player every day could really damage a team’s chances if they’re contending for the postseason. Again, that situation never comes up if someone like Tony Phillips on your roster, as even if he’s your starting third baseman, starting second baseman, starting right fielder, whatever – he can move to the injured player’s spot so you can get your next best player on the field instead of barrel bottom scraping.

Again, we can assign value to Phillips when he played each position, but we’ll never know the value he brought by allowing his team to avoid playing their worst player for an extended period when a starter is injured.

For those reasons alone Tony Phillips likely brought far more value to his teams than we realized or have the ability to measure. Now let’s get to what we can measure, because he was far better in that regard than he’s given credit for as well.

For the Statistically Inclined

As mentioned, Phillips could play every defensive position besides pitcher and catcher competently which brings measurable value, and he was a good player in the batter’s box, which we can also measure. Driven by an elite ability to control the strike zone* from both sides of the plate, he was a good player for Oakland in the eighties, but really hit his stride In Detroit after signing with them as a free agent prior to the 1990 season.

(*Generally, players who aren’t home run threats don’t draw many walks, yet Phillips’ career walk rate of 14.8% is the 10^th best in MLB since divisional play began. And although his 160 career home runs are nothing to sneeze at, that’s 128 fewer than Bobby Abreu’s home run total, and Abreu had the next fewest bombs on the top ten walk rate list. For even more eye-opening perspective about strike zone control, since the advent of divisional play, only Wade Boggs has both more career walks and fewer career home runs than Phillips.)

In Phillips’ five seasons in Detroit from 1990 through 1994, he averaged a phenomenal 5.1 bWAR per season with remarkable consistency, posting between 4.7 and 5.6 each year, essentially giving Sparky Anderson an All-Star season every year. Yet not even in the strike shortened 1994 season when his 4.7 WAR in 114 only games (a 6.7 WAR pace over 162 games) was fifth best in the AL, did Phillips receive an All-Star nod at any point.

All told over that five season span, Phillips’ 25.3 bWAR was seventh best in MLB, amazingly trailing only Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas, Rickey Henderson and Ryne Sandberg. Future Hall of Famers Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell, Roberto Alomar, Fred McGriff, Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio all played over that stretch and weren’t over the hill – and none of them was as valuable as Tony Phillips, without even factoring in the value from being a switch hitter who played all over the field.

Even if you want to expand the sample size through 1995 when Phillips moved on to California and then through 1996 when signed with the White Sox as a free agent, he was still not only one of baseball’s best players, but still produced more value than many future Hall of Famers did. From 1990 through 1995, Phillips 29.7 bWAR was eighth best in MLB, ranking ahead of 11 future Hall of Famers and from ’90 through ’96 he was 10^th in MLB in bWAR with 32.9. That was better than too many great players with bigger names to list, but for some reference, second basemen (Phillips’ best position) Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio, who were both in their prime during that span, fell short of Phillips’ seven season WAR total from 1990-1996.

He called it quits after a 1.7 WAR, 108 OPS+, 1999 season in Oakland at age 40. When it was all said and done, he’d produced 50.9 WAR with a 34.1 seven season peak WAR which ranks 25^th all time among second basemen in the Hall of Fame ranking JAWS. That puts him just a tick behind Nellie Fox who is in Cooperstown, and Jeff Kent who many feel should be. It must also be noted that Cooperstown inductee Tony Lazzeri, who played in an eight- team, non-integrated league, falls short in both career and peak WAR to Tony Phillips.

That’s among second basemen. Phillips’ 50.9 career WAR is more than six more than Ben Zobrist’s 44.5 career WAR. As you’re reading Off the Bench Baseball, I don’t need to remind you that Zobrist – who had three All-Star appearances and finished in the top 20 in MVP voting three times – is considered the gold standard for the role and type of player under discussion – and even his considerable career value falls short of Phillips’.

It’s likely we under value versatile players who don’t spend their careers at primarily one position and Phillips’ legacy is hurt by his own talent. Also, Phillips was a very good hitter, but in part due to drawing so many walks (led the league twice) and the absence of big home run totals, he doesn’t have gaudy counting numbers. That said, 2,023 hits and 1,319 walks are nothing to sneeze at – only 11 players reached base more often than Phillips did from 1982-1999 – one is Barry Bonds and eight others are in Cooperstown.

I’m a strict hypothetical Hall of Fame voter and although 50.9 WAR is a monster of a career, it’s not Hall worthy. Sure, it exceeds the career total of many Hall of Famers including Kirby Puckett, Jim Rice and Lou Brock, but let’s not compound missteps.

Tony Phillips is vastly underrated as a baseball player both in ways that we can measure and those that we can’t. His career holds up against many players that we rightly consider Hall of Famers. His legacy has suffered as a result of his own talent.

-Jon Rimmer

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Coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the most surprising division leader in baseball as the calendar approaches mid-June. Through June 12, the Pirates were 34-30, sat one game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, and were the only team in the division with a positive run-differential (a modest +2).

This wouldn’t mean much for most teams, but it was a novelty for Pittsburgh. The last time a Pittsburgh Pirates team was in first place through their first *64 games was in 1997, when the Internet was mostly accessed through dial-up modems. Back then, Netscape Navigator was the most popular web browser, but America Online CDs were everywhere and Internet Explorer would soon be king. It was a time when Tamagotchis and Giga Pets were hugely popular electronic toys and Sony was still trying to make the MiniDisc happen.

*The 2013 Pirates were in second place through 64 games. They moved into first place later in the season and were in first place as late as September 16 before ultimately finishing in second place.

Those 1997 Pittsburgh Pirates were 32-32 through 64 games, which was good enough to lead the NL Central by a game over the Houston Astros, who have since moved over to the American League. In Pittsburgh’s 64^th game, a 5-3 win over Kansas City in the first year of interleague play, Francisco Cordova and three relievers outpitched Jim Pittsley and two relievers while Joe Randa rapped two hits and drove in three runs for the boys from the Burgh. Jason Kendall had a hit, two walks, and scored two runs. Jose Guillen had two hits and a walk. And Tony Womack was 2-for-5 with a sock and a shoe (home run and steal). Older Pirates fans likely remember those names, but shortstop Kevin Polcovich may not ring a bell. Behind the plate was longtime umpire “Cowboy” Joe West, who was almost at the halfway point of his MLB-record 43 seasons.

The 2023 Pirates have enjoyed a wild ride through the first eight weeks of the season. After starting the year going 9-7 in their first 16 games, they reeled off 11 wins in 12 games and were 20-8 after a double-header sweep of the Washington Nationals on April 29. Then they lost 11 of 12 to fall to 21-19 and it looked like the wind was completely out of their sales. They didn’t give up, though, a modest 13-11 stretch saw them regain the lead in their division. But another rough patch – this one which involves losing 12 of 13 – is threatening to take all the fun out of Pittsburgh.

Before the season began, the FanGraphs playoff odds had the Pirates with a 6.5% chance to make the playoffs. They climbed up to 25.5%, and are back down to just a 2.8% chance. The projected standings in the NL Central have the Brewers on top, at 82-80, so a team that manages to get to 83 wins will have a real chance in this division. Why not the Pirates?

The Return of Andrew McCutchen

There are some great stories on this team, beginning with the return of the beloved prodigal son, Andrew McCutchen. He’s the heart and soul of this year’s Pirates, much like he was in his heyday a decade ago. McCutchen was Pittsburgh’s 1^st round draft pick in 2005. By the time he reached the major leagues in 2009, the Pirates were coming off year 16 of what would eventually be a 20-year streak of consecutive losing records. He was instantly their best player.

McCutchen finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, made his first of five straight All-Star teams in 2011, and finished third in NL MVP voting in 2012. That was all a prelude to the 2013 season, when he won the NL MVP while leading the Pirates to their first winning season and first playoff berth since 1992. The MLB-record 20-season streak of losing seasons was over.

The 2013-2015 Pirates won 94, 88, and 98 games and made the playoffs all three years as a wild card team. They represent a glorious oasis of joy for Pirates fans that was preceded and followed by long spells of losing baseball. Andrew McCutchen was the centerpiece of the team during those three seasons and the years just before and after. During his five consecutive All-Star seasons from 2011-2015, he averaged 155 games played, 173 hits, 35 doubles, 25 homers, 20 steals, 94 runs scored, and 90 RBI, while hitting .302/.396/.509. He led all NL players in FanGraphs WAR during this stretch.

The Pirates traded McCutchen to the Giants after the 2017 season in a deal that brought back Bryan Reynolds, who is now one of their top players. McCutchen spent most of the 2018 season with the Giants before getting traded to the Yankees, which led to a baby-faced, goatee-less Andrew McCutchen because of the silly Yankees policy that prohibits facial hair other than a mustache. He then spent three years with the Phillies and one with Milwaukee before returning to the Pirates as a free agent in the offseason. He’s been a fixture at the top of the lineup this year with a team-leading .394 on base percentage.

Reynolds and Hayes

As expected, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes have been key players. Reynolds is second on the team to McCutchen with a 124 OPS+, which is about the same as last year. He’s not the player he was in his career-best 2021 season, but still projects to be an All-Star caliber player by season’s end. Hayes leads all MLB players in Outs Above Average on defense. He’s a magician in the field. Even with a below-average bat, Hayes is a 3-4 WAR player.

Slugging Suwinski and Other Surprises

The best hitter in the Pirates’ lineup so far this season has been Jack Suwinski. The lefty slugger is a grip-it-and-rip-it guy who leads the team in home runs and strikeouts. His greatest flaw is an inability to hit left-handed pitching, but he’s been crushing righties. Among players with 120 or more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Suwinski ranks 7^th with a 161 wRC+, meaning he’s 61 percent better than average against right-handed pitchers, which is up there with Juan Soto (163 wRC+ vs. RHP). Against lefties, though, Suwinski’s 56 wRC+ ranks 174^th of 187 hitters with 50 or plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Along with Suwinski, the Pirates have Connor Joe, Tucupita Marcano, and Rodolfo Castro, all of whom have been roughly league average on offense but who many baseball fans couldn’t pick out of a lineup. Another such player is Ji-Hwan Bae, who isn’t quite at league average on offense, but is tied for second in steals among NL players.

Mitch, Rich, and Johan on the Hill

On the mound, Mitch Keller is having the season many have been hoping for, with eight wins and a 3.45 ERA that is backed up by his underlying metrics. He has increased his strikeout rate and reduced his walk rate for four straight seasons, resulting in a 21.8% K-BB% that ranks 11^th in MLB among qualifying pitchers, right behind Zack Wheeler and just ahead of Pablo Lopez and Zac Gallen.

Young Johan Oviedo and veteran Rich Hill, 18 years apart in age, have been the second and third best starters on the Pirates this year. Oviedo does it with a fastball that averages 96 mph, while Hill is baffling hitters with 71 mph curveballs and 69 mph sliders.

In a start June 9, Hill allowed just two runs in 7 innings while throwing 119 pitches against the New York Mets. That’s the most pitches any pitcher has thrown in a game this year and leave it to the 43-year-old to do it. It was also one short of Hill’s career high. As a 26-year-old back in 2006, Hill threw 120 pitches in a win against the Atlanta Braves. The opposing pitcher was John Smoltz, who has been retired for 13 years.

Put the Game to Bed with Bednar

Until recently, the key members of the Pirates’ bullpen have been very good. Closer David Bednar has a 1.50 ERA and 15 saves. After him, things get a little more dicey. Eighth-inning guy Dauri Moreta has 12 K/9. Seventh-inning guy Colin Holderman very appropriately leads the team in holds, with 14. On June 16, the Pirates’ bullpen ranked third in the NL in ERA. 10 days later, the unit holds a 4.53 ERA mark that’s the 4th worst in the NL.

Baseball is unpredictable, which is part of why it’s so fun to follow. The Pirates have been better than anyone expected and play in a division that looks ripe for the taking. They have a beautiful ballpark and drew 91,000 fans during their recent three-game series with the Mets. They’ve made the playoffs just three times since 1992, so their fans are hungry for a winner and the foundational pieces of a winner are in place. If ever there’s a time for Pirates management to make some moves to better the team, that time is now.

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