Coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the most surprising division leader in baseball as the calendar approaches mid-June. Through June 12, the Pirates were 34-30, sat one game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, and were the only team in the division with a positive run-differential (a modest +2). This wouldn’t mean much for most teams, but it was a novelty for Pittsburgh. The last time a Pittsburgh Pirates team was in first place through their first *64 games was in 1997, when the Internet was mostly accessed through dial-up modems. Back then, Netscape Navigator was the most popular web browser, but America Online CDs were everywhere and Internet Explorer would soon be king. It was a time when Tamagotchis and Giga Pets were hugely popular electronic toys and Sony was still trying to make the MiniDisc happen. *The 2013 Pirates were in second place through 64 games. They moved into first place later in the season and were in first place as late as September 16 before ultimately finishing in second place. Those 1997 Pittsburgh Pirates were 32-32 through 64 games, which was good enough to lead the NL Central by a game over the Houston Astros, who have since moved over to the American League. In Pittsburgh’s 64th game, a 5-3 win over Kansas City in the first year of interleague play, Francisco Cordova and three relievers outpitched Jim Pittsley and two relievers while Joe Randa rapped two hits and drove in three runs for the boys from the Burgh. Jason Kendall had a hit, two walks, and scored two runs. Jose Guillen had two hits and a walk. And Tony Womack was 2-for-5 with a sock and a shoe (home run and steal). Older Pirates fans likely remember those names, but shortstop Kevin Polcovich may not ring a bell. Behind the plate was longtime umpire “Cowboy” Joe West, who was almost at the halfway point of his MLB-record 43 seasons. The 2023 Pirates have enjoyed a wild ride through the first eight weeks of the season. After starting the year going 9-7 in their first 16 games, they reeled off 11 wins in 12 games and were 20-8 after a double-header sweep of the Washington Nationals on April 29. Then they lost 11 of 12 to fall to 21-19 and it looked like the wind was completely out of their sales. They didn’t give up, though, a modest 13-11 stretch saw them regain the lead in their division. But another rough patch – this one which involves losing 12 of 13 – is threatening to take all the fun out of Pittsburgh. Before the season began, the FanGraphs playoff odds had the Pirates with a 6.5% chance to make the playoffs. They climbed up to 25.5%, and are back down to just a 2.8% chance. The projected standings in the NL Central have the Brewers on top, at 82-80, so a team that manages to get to 83 wins will have a real chance in this division. Why not the Pirates? The Return of Andrew McCutchen There are some great stories on this team, beginning with the return of the beloved prodigal son, Andrew McCutchen. He’s the heart and soul of this year’s Pirates, much like he was in his heyday a decade ago. McCutchen was Pittsburgh’s 1st round draft pick in 2005. By the time he reached the major leagues in 2009, the Pirates were coming off year 16 of what would eventually be a 20-year streak of consecutive losing records. He was instantly their best player. McCutchen finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, made his first of five straight All-Star teams in 2011, and finished third in NL MVP voting in 2012. That was all a prelude to the 2013 season, when he won the NL MVP while leading the Pirates to their first winning season and first playoff berth since 1992. The MLB-record 20-season streak of losing seasons was over. The 2013-2015 Pirates won 94, 88, and 98 games and made the playoffs all three years as a wild card team. They represent a glorious oasis of joy for Pirates fans that was preceded and followed by long spells of losing baseball. Andrew McCutchen was the centerpiece of the team during those three seasons and the years just before and after. During his five consecutive All-Star seasons from 2011-2015, he averaged 155 games played, 173 hits, 35 doubles, 25 homers, 20 steals, 94 runs scored, and 90 RBI, while hitting .302/.396/.509. He led all NL players in FanGraphs WAR during this stretch. The Pirates traded McCutchen to the Giants after the 2017 season in a deal that brought back Bryan Reynolds, who is now one of their top players. McCutchen spent most of the 2018 season with the Giants before getting traded to the Yankees, which led to a baby-faced, goatee-less Andrew McCutchen because of the silly Yankees policy that prohibits facial hair other than a mustache. He then spent three years with the Phillies and one with Milwaukee before returning to the Pirates as a free agent in the offseason. He’s been a fixture at the top of the lineup this year with a team-leading .394 on base percentage. Reynolds and Hayes As expected, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes have been key players. Reynolds is second on the team to McCutchen with a 124 OPS+, which is about the same as last year. He’s not the player he was in his career-best 2021 season, but still projects to be an All-Star caliber player by season’s end. Hayes leads all MLB players in Outs Above Average on defense. He’s a magician in the field. Even with a below-average bat, Hayes is a 3-4 WAR player. Slugging Suwinski and Other Surprises The best hitter in the Pirates’ lineup so far this season has been Jack Suwinski. The lefty slugger is a grip-it-and-rip-it guy who leads the team in home runs and strikeouts. His greatest flaw is an inability to hit left-handed pitching, but he’s been crushing righties. Among players with 120 or more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, Suwinski ranks 7th with a 161 wRC+, meaning he’s 61 percent better than average against right-handed pitchers, which is up there with Juan Soto (163 wRC+ vs. RHP). Against lefties, though, Suwinski’s 56 wRC+ ranks 174th of 187 hitters with 50 or plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Along with Suwinski, the Pirates have Connor Joe, Tucupita Marcano, and Rodolfo Castro, all of whom have been roughly league average on offense but who many baseball fans couldn’t pick out of a lineup. Another such player is Ji-Hwan Bae, who isn’t quite at league average on offense, but is tied for second in steals among NL players. Mitch, Rich, and Johan on the Hill On the mound, Mitch Keller is having the season many have been hoping for, with eight wins and a 3.45 ERA that is backed up by his underlying metrics. He has increased his strikeout rate and reduced his walk rate for four straight seasons, resulting in a 21.8% K-BB% that ranks 11th in MLB among qualifying pitchers, right behind Zack Wheeler and just ahead of Pablo Lopez and Zac Gallen. Young Johan Oviedo and veteran Rich Hill, 18 years apart in age, have been the second and third best starters on the Pirates this year. Oviedo does it with a fastball that averages 96 mph, while Hill is baffling hitters with 71 mph curveballs and 69 mph sliders. In a start June 9, Hill allowed just two runs in 7 innings while throwing 119 pitches against the New York Mets. That’s the most pitches any pitcher has thrown in a game this year and leave it to the 43-year-old to do it. It was also one short of Hill’s career high. As a 26-year-old back in 2006, Hill threw 120 pitches in a win against the Atlanta Braves. The opposing pitcher was John Smoltz, who has been retired for 13 years. Put the Game to Bed with Bednar Until recently, the key members of the Pirates’ bullpen have been very good. Closer David Bednar has a 1.50 ERA and 15 saves. After him, things get a little more dicey. Eighth-inning guy Dauri Moreta has 12 K/9. Seventh-inning guy Colin Holderman very appropriately leads the team in holds, with 14. On June 16, the Pirates’ bullpen ranked third in the NL in ERA. 10 days later, the unit holds a 4.53 ERA mark that’s the 4th worst in the NL. Baseball is unpredictable, which is part of why it’s so fun to follow. The Pirates have been better than anyone expected and play in a division that looks ripe for the taking. They have a beautiful ballpark and drew 91,000 fans during their recent three-game series with the Mets. They’ve made the playoffs just three times since 1992, so their fans are hungry for a winner and the foundational pieces of a winner are in place. If ever there’s a time for Pirates management to make some moves to better the team, that time is now. The post Still Pulling for the Pittsburgh Pirates appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/06/27/still-pulling-for-the-pittsburgh-pirates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=still-pulling-for-the-pittsburgh-pirates
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We’re almost at the halfway mark of the 2023 MLB season and to no one’s surprise, the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers have all played reasonably well. Despite some struggles from key players, and an active IL for all three teams, with their organizational depth and with some financial flexibility thrown in, they’re all still on schedule for a win total in the high 80s. In fact, they’ve almost been able to keep the same pace as…The Miami Marlins. Yes, as I’m writing, the Marlins have a better record than the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees. Although that may be impressive, far more importantly for the Marlins is that both the Phillies and Mets need to look up to see them in the NL East standings. The Marlins’ success thus far is interesting in the sense that they’re doing it in what’s become an untraditional manner. I’m not referring to the team’s proclivity for making contact and avoiding strikeouts even if it means hitting with less power – I’m talking about Kim Ng, their GM. Ng, as you may know, is the only woman to ever be the head shot caller of an MLB team’s roster decisions and is still only one of four people of color with that level of authority. As always, to understand how the Marlins got here, let’s back up a little bit. At the end of the 2020 season, the Marlins had finished over .500, won a playoff series, and had five starting pitchers under the age of 25 with better than league average ERA+. At a cursory glance, even in the darkness of Loan Depot ballpark, things were looking bright in south Florida. The problem is that the brief success was a mirage. The batters ranked 24th in OPS+ and 21st in runs per game over the shortened season, while fielders ranked 23rd in turning batted balls into outs. (The pitching situation was a little more complex as well see in a minute, as even with the good young arms they ranked 22nd in runs allowed per game.) As a reminder, this was 2020, when more than half of the league made the playoffs, and that series victory was actually just two wins over the equally flawed Cubs – the Marlins moved on to get swept by Atlanta in the next round. Someone high up in the Marlins’ organization (Derek Jeter, who knew Ng from her days as New York’s assistant GM during the last Yankees’ dynasty, perhaps?) wasn’t going to be blinded by the feel-good story and decided a change in upper management was in order. Ng was hired to call the rosters shots. Given that most MLB GMs are essentially working 24/7, we can’t comprehensively cover every transaction Ng oversaw, but you’ll see she had a clear strategy. The current Marlins’ roster is littered with some very good hitters, which certainly couldn’t be said about the roster Ng inherited. Luis Arraez (159 OPS+), Jesús Sánchez (132 OPS+) and Bryan De La Cruz (108 OPS+) were all acquired in trades with Miami using their pitching depth to sending pitchers the other way. Jorge Soler (149 OPS+) was signed as a free agent for $27 million over two years, which is turning out to be one of the better under-the-radar signings in MLB over the last two years. Meanwhile, despite using Pablo López, Nick Anderson, and Yimi García in the trades above, and also losing 2021 Rookie of the Year runner up Trevor Rogers to the 60-day IL, the Marlins pitching staff remains young, deep and effective – even more so than in 2020. Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez, Andrew Nardi, and Bryan Hoeing, remain (read: were not traded when there certainly was a league wide market for them) while Jesús Luzardo, Tanner Scott, and A.J. Puk were acquired in trades. All told that’s eight pitchers on the current staff who have FIPs under 4.00 and are also under 30 years old. That’s not counting Dylan Floro and Steven Okert who also have sub 4.00 FIPs and are 32 and 31 years old respectively. Ng, rather obviously* saw she had many holes to fill and used an area of organizational depth (several good young pitchers) to fill those holes, strengthening the team overall. But not only did she do it while getting serious value in return with those trades, it was done without weakening the area of strength by holding on to the right chips – particularly Garrett and Pérez – and replenishing through more trades. (*Although it may seem obvious, many GMs either fail to recognize talent deficits when they are right in front of them or lack the aptitude to elevate out of the hole.) Let it also be noted that we’re wrapping up today’s chat and have yet to mention that they’ve played almost half of their games in 2023 with Jazz Chisolm Jr., arguably their best player coming into the year, on the IL. To be fair, questions about whether or not the Marlins’ success is sustainable are valid. We are still less than half of a season into this Marlins core and they still have room to improve before they start truly scaring teams. Small sample size is not the point here. We know that Kim Ng has done a great job: the Marlins are clearly a better team than they were prior to her hiring. And they are a heck of a lot of fun to watch. If Kim Ng were either a 30 something Harvard graduate, or a crotchety “old school, back when men were men” GM, she’d be getting regular national coverage and recognition. Let’s give her the credit she deserves anyway. The post Let’s give Kim Ng credit for the Miami Marlins appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/06/26/lets-give-kim-ng-credit-for-the-miami-marlins/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lets-give-kim-ng-credit-for-the-miami-marlins For most entrepreneurs, the overwhelming feeling can often hit them at some point during their journey. Whether it’s due to the amount of work involved in running a business, the finances, or managing a team, the overall responsibility of running a company can get overwhelming. As an entrepreneur, you must take responsibility for your actions and personal life. This includes managing your finances, maintaining relationships, and taking care of other personal matters. Burnout is often inevitable, especially for those that work so hard. So here are a fewtips on how to recover from it. Cutting Down on Workloads One of the first steps everyone should take to reduce stress is removing all the non-essential tasks from their list. In other words, you need to reduce your workload. This is especially true for those during a burnout cycle. You will not recover quickly if you don’t make an immediate change. Understand the Source Getting to the root cause of your stress is the first step to addressing it. Before you can startworking on a plan to manage it, it’s essential that you first identify the reason why you’re feeling overwhelmed. This will allow you to determine the factors contributing to your stress and devise a strategy to address them. Ask for Help Most entrepreneurs experience feelings of frustration and being overwhelmed during their journey. However, for solopreneurs and freelancers, who work alone, burnout can occur much faster. This is why they must ask for help. It would help if you asked a friend, family member, or professional to help you manage your stress. This will allow you to avoid feeling overwhelmed and focus on the important tasks you must complete. Another option is to outsource some of the work that you have to do. This will allow you to reduce stress and focus on the tasks you have the time and energy for. Optimize Your Routine Setting clear boundaries and enforcing no-work hours are two of the most critical factors you should consider whenpreventing burnout. In addition, you need to establish and follow a regular work routine. This will allow you to focus on the tasks that you have to complete and avoid getting interrupted. One of the most effective ways to improve your productivity and concentration is by scheduling time slots that allow you to work on a single task simultaneously. The post How An Entrepreneur Can Recover from Burnout first appeared on Louis DeTitto | Business. via Louis DeTitto | Business https://louisdetitto.com/how-an-entrepreneur-can-recover-from-burnout/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-an-entrepreneur-can-recover-from-burnout In 2012, there were no female coaches in the NBA, MLB, NFL, and the National Hockey League. In 2016, a Women’s Sports Foundation report revealed that women led only 3% of men’s teams in college sports. Women have made significant progress in recent years when it comes to coaching in major leagues.Some notable female coaches include those in the NBA, MLB, and NFL. 1. Becky Hammon After a 16-year career in the NBA, Becky Hammon became the first female assistant coach in the league in 2014. She joined the San Antonio Spurs and has worked for them for the last six seasons. According to ESPN, her promotion was not just about her gender, as Pop did not just hand her an opportunity. 2. Kim Ng Kim Ng became the first woman in North America to hold the position of general manager of a major league team when the Miami Marlins hired her in 2020. Before becoming the director general of the group, she worked for the New York Yankees, LA Dodgers, and the Chicago White Sox. 3. Jennifer King In 2021, Jennifer King became the NFL’s first African-American female assistant coach. Before becoming an assistant coach for the Washington Football team, she had been a coaching intern. She was promoted to the position at the start of the season. 4. Katie Sowers In 2020, Katie Sowers became the first female coach to lead a team to a Super Bowl. She was also the first openly gay coach in the league. Sowers was the offensive assistant coach for the San Francisco 49ers. She left the team after the season to look for another job. 5. Nancy Lieberman Lieberman, a talented player in the Women’s National Basketball Association, was the first woman to lead a professional men’s team in 2009. She became the head coach of the NBA Developmental League’s Texas Legends. She then became the second woman to hold the assistant coach position in the history of the NBA. 6. Jennifer Welter Jennifer Welter was working as a part-time coach for the Arizona Cardinals. Before becoming an assistant coach, she had been a professional football player. She also competed in the Women’s World Championship. The post Top Female Coaches in the Sports Industry first appeared on Louis DeTitto's Sports Blog. via Louis DeTitto's Sports Blog https://louisdetitto.net/top-female-coaches-in-the-sports-industry/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=top-female-coaches-in-the-sports-industry Major League Baseball is an exciting sport to follow, especially if you like to bet on sports. It is played throughout the summer months and offers a wide range of betting options. There are different ways to bet on major league baseball, and each method has its advantages and disadvantages. In this blog post, we will talk about the six ways to bet on MLB. Moneyline BetsMoneyline bets for major league baseball are a straightforward way to wager on a game’s outcome. Essentially, you’re placing a bet on which team you think will win the game outright, with no need to worry about point spreads or any other fancy betting options. And with so many games being played during the baseball season, there are always plenty of opportunities to place moneyline bets. It’s also worth noting that moneyline odds can fluctuate depending on how the public is betting, so it’s important to stay up-to-date with the latest odds if you’re looking to capitalize on your wagers. Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or just trying your luck for the first time, moneyline bets for major league baseball are a reliable way to enjoy the excitement of America’s favourite pastime. Runline BetsAnother way to add even more excitement to major league baseball is through runline bets. These bets allow you to wager on a team winning by a certain number of runs, which can greatly increase your chances of winning big. However, it’s important to do your research before placing a bet. Look at the team’s stats, their recent performance, and consider any injuries or roster changes. With the right strategy, runline bets can turn a regular game into a heart-pounding thrill ride. So why not try your luck with a runline bet during the next major league baseball game you attend? Point Spread BettingIf you’re looking for a more complex way to bet on major league baseball, point spread betting might be the answer. This type of wager pits two teams against each other, with one team favoured to win by a certain number of points. Point spread betting is similar to runline bets in that you can increase your chances of winning by doing detailed research and analyzing the stats. However, with point spread betting, it’s to remember that there is still a chance for either team to pull off the win. So if you’re feeling lucky and want to spice up your major league baseball experience, why not give point spread betting a try? Over/Under BetsAnother popular way to bet on major league baseball games is through over/under bets. This type of wager refers to how many runs will be scored in the game by both teams combined. If you think that a certain game will be high scoring, then an over wager might be the right choice for you. On the other hand, if you think that a game won’t be as high scoring, then an under wager could be the way to go. Over/under bets can add a whole new level of excitement to major league baseball games and make watching them even more enjoyable. Futures WagersFutures wagers for major league baseball involve betting on the outcome of an entire season rather than individual games. This means that you can bet on which team you think will win the divisional or pennant race, as well as which team will go all the way and win the World Series. It’s important to remember that futures wagers are made before the season starts and can be quite difficult to predict, so research is key if you want to make a sound decision. But with careful consideration and plenty of patience, futures wagers can add some real excitement to your major league baseball experience. Prop BetsThe final way to bet on major league baseball games is through prop bets. These wagers involve betting on specific events that occur during a game, such as who will get the first hit or how many strikeouts a pitcher will have. Prop bets can be great fun and offer unique opportunities to win big. So why not take your major league baseball experience to the next level with some prop bets? You will be in for a wild ride and may even come out on top if you get your predictions right. Just make sure to review the latest MLB baseball odds so that you can properly capitalize on your wagers. ConclusionMajor league baseball can be an exciting and thrilling sport to watch, but with the right betting strategy in place, watching a game can turn into a truly unforgettable experience. So next time you head out to your local ballpark or tune into an MLB game on television, make sure to take advantage of these wager opportunities so that you can add some extra excitement and maybe even win some. The post Six Ways to Bet on Major League Baseball appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/06/08/six-ways-to-bet-on-major-league-baseball/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=six-ways-to-bet-on-major-league-baseball Aaron Judge is the best baseball player in the world right now. With apologies to Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the other 7.9 billion humans, no one else can keep up with his torrid production since the start of the 2022 season. We are all witnessing greatness before our eyes, but is he spectacular enough to reach the Hall of Fame? Jayson Stark of The Athletic released his current Hall of Fame tiers last week, putting Judge in the “On a Path” group. The article accomplished its goal—the same goal of nearly every Hall of Fame article—to start a debate between friends. Over texts, I stated why I believe he’s likely to make it to the Hall while a friend of mine argued why he isn’t. This could only be settled one of two ways: waiting 15 years until he’s on the ballot or with a dinky little Twitter poll. Even though the majority of voters in this extremely thorough, scientific research method believe he will become a Hall of Famer, it’s closer than I realized. Let’s crack into the numbers to determine where he stands in relation to other right fielders. The WAR Case Before the JudgeComparing players of different eras with contrasting styles is always the biggest challenge with regard to the Hall of Fame. For example, Tony Gwynn and Mel Ott may have both played right field primarily, but that’s where their similarities end. The easiest way to rank players is using WAR and JAWS. JAWS is Jay Jaffe’s Hall of Fame metric which is found on Baseball-Reference that sets a Hall benchmark at each position. It has two components that are averaged out for each player: career WAR and WAR7, or the total of the player’s seven highest WAR seasons. However, even Jaffe would forewarn that WAR and JAWS are meant to be the start of a conversation—not the end of one. There are 28 right fielders in the Hall of Fame. They average 71.1 WAR and 42.4 WAR7, which comes out to 56.7 JAWS. There are 14 right fielders with more than 56.7 JAWS, and they’re all in the Hall except for Shoeless Joe Jackson, who is permanently banned from MLB. The borderline range appears to be from 50-53 JAWS, which includes the following:
Below them are a bunch of old-timey Hall of Famers who probably wouldn’t reach the threshold if their candidacy was reviewed through a modern lens, such as Enos Slaughter, Wee Willie Keeler, and Chuck Klein. Directly above that group is Mookie Betts, who isn’t finished adding to his JAWS total, and the 14 no-doubters (including Shoeless Joe). In other words, anyone who reaches the low-50s is a close call. The mid-50s or higher is a slam dunk. Judge’s WAR7The Yankees drafted Judge after his junior year at Fresno State. He didn’t even begin his minor-league career until just before his 22nd birthday, by which age many Hall-of-Famers had already debuted in the big leagues. He didn’t reach MLB until 2016 at the age of 24 and didn’t establish himself as a star until his age-25 season. Even though he’s 31 now, 2023 is just his eighth MLB campaign. One of them was his 27-game debut season in which he hit .179 with four home runs and another was the pandemic-shortened 2020. He has only played five full seasons so far, so his 39.5 WAR7 is actually higher than his 39.2 total WAR. He only needs 2.9 more WAR to reach the HOF average 42.4 WAR7 at his position. This is almost a foregone conclusion. He already has 2.3 WAR this year and May isn’t even over. Barring a major injury, he will probably reach the WAR7 benchmark by the end of the season. When he blasted 62 home runs and won the MVP in 2022, he accumulated 10.6 WAR. This year, he leads the AL with 17 home runs despite a brief IL stint, and he’s on pace for 6.7 WAR. 2024 should also improve his WAR7 because it would bump off his 1.1 WAR 2020 season, in which he played just 28 games. His lowest WAR over a 162-game season was 5.6 in 2019 (he played only 102 games). It’s reasonable to project another 5.0-7.0 WAR season next year, which would boost his WAR7 to the 46-48 range. There are three players in that WAR7 neighborhood and all three are no-doubt Hall-of-Famers: Al Kaline (48.8), Harry Heilmann (47.1), and Reggie Jackson (46.8). Total WARJudge’s exceptional peak is his best case for the Hall because he got too late of a start to accumulate a great deal of total WAR. He almost certainly won’t reach the Hall positional average of 71.1 (which could change as more players get elected), but Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, and Vladimir Guerrero didn’t reach that threshold either. The JAWS goal is 55 to become a surefire inductee. Let’s assume he reaches 46 WAR7, conservatively. He would need 64 total WAR to achieve 55 JAWS. Even if he settles with 54 total WAR, he would have 50 JAWS, putting him in the borderline territory. Through Monday’s action, he has 39.2 career WAR. Let’s assume (again, conservatively) he brings his total up to 42 by the end of the year. Another five-win season in 2024 would boost him to 47. His contract runs through 2031. This means that over the final seven years of his career, spanning ages 33-39, he would need to accumulate just seven more WAR to reach borderline status. Even if we factor in a reasonable decline during which he becomes a replacement-level player over the last few years of his career, that’s still a very achievable goal for him. Here’s a guess about what the rest of his career might look like, even factoring in some injuries, aging, and spending more time as a designated hitter in future years:
51.2 JAWS is a low-end projection for where he might finish, and that makes him a firm borderline candidate. With a rosier projection in which he doesn’t taper off so quickly, he could finish in the mid-to-high 50s, which probably gets him inducted on the first ballot. The Softer FactorsWAR and JAWS are just a guideline. There are other factors that voters will consider as well, many of which work in Judge’s favor. He already has an MVP and a Rookie of the Year. He owns the AL single-season records for home runs (62) and rookie home runs (52). Only nine other players in AL/NL history have had multiple 50-home run campaigns. Six are already in the Hall and the other three were PED users (Mark McGwire, Álex Rodríguez, and Sammy Sosa). He already has 17 home runs this year despite a ten-day IL stint; if he can achieve a third 50-homer season, he will join Babe Ruth as the only two players to ever hit 50 three times cleanly (again excluding McGwire, ARod, and Sosa). Hall voters also tend to favor players who spend their entire career with one franchise—especially the Yankees. There’s no guarantee he won’t sign with another club in 2032 at age 40, but if he’s still good enough to get another contract, he will have already accumulated enough WAR to settle the Hall of Fame debate in his favor. The Case AgainstRemember my friend who argued against Judge reaching the Hall? He would posit that a 280-pound dude putting mileage on his legs roaming the outfield is more prone to breaking down. He’s probably not wrong. Injuries could scuttle his mid-30s completely, sapping him of enough value to make it to Cooperstown. As is, he only has three seasons so far with more than 500 plate appearances, and he’s already too old to get many more. For similar lack-of-durability reasons, Larry Walker almost missed the Hall and didn’t get elected until his final ballot. Judge’s age and potential for injuries will also prevent him from achieving major milestones. He has 237 home runs. He probably will get to 400, but almost definitely not 500. With his high walk rate, he only has 797 career hits, and he might not reach 1,500. The only Hall-of-Fame right fielders in AL/NL history with fewer than 1,500 hits are Tommy McCarthy (weird 1800s proto baseball) and Ross Youngs (a mistake by the Veterans Committee). A Judge ComparisonEven though they had completely different styles of play, the best comparison for Judge’s Hall case might be Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro also got started late in MLB because he played in Japan through his age-26 season. Both won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year with a historically great rookie season. Judge won’t play into his mid-40s like Ichiro and he won’t come anywhere near 3,000 hits (4,367 including Japanese stats). While Judge is a very good outfielder (for now), Ichiro is arguably the greatest defensive right fielder ever. However, Judge will likely finish with more outstanding single seasons and a higher peak, not to mention the specialness of surpassing Roger Maris sans steroids. Ichiro ended his career with 51.9 JAWS based on 60.0 WAR and 43.7 WAR7. Judge should end up in that same neighborhood, if not higher, due to a better WAR7 but probably lower total WAR. Their softer factors are similar, though you can give Ichiro an edge there if you want due to Japanese stats, ten Gold Gloves, and reaching the 3,000-hit plateau. He won’t be eligible for the Hall of Fame until the 2025 election, but he will almost certainly get in on the first ballot. That bodes well for Judge to get inducted if he stays on his current path without a catastrophic decline phase, even if he has to wait through a few election cycles. The post The Aaron Judge Hall of Fame Question appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/05/30/the-aaron-judge-hall-of-fame-question/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-aaron-judge-hall-of-fame-question There’s something captivating about players who can both hit for power and steal bases. Typically, the league’s best power hitters and top base stealers occupy separate parts of the leaderboards, with the sluggers generally stealing fewer bases than the average player and the speedsters hitting the ball over the wall less often than the average Joe. Players who can do both at an elite level are often among the best and most exciting to play the game. Hank Aaron is better known for hitting home runs at a prolific pace than for his skills on the bases, but he had a nine-year stretch from 1960 to 1968 during which he averaged nearly 22 steals per season to go along with his 36 homers per year. In 1963, he hit 44 homers and stole 31 bases. One of Aaron’s contemporaries, the great Willie Mays, averaged 38 homers and 28 steals per season from 1955 to 1962, which included a 35-HR/38-SB season and a 36-HR/40-SB season. The player that embodies the power/steal dynamic better than anyone this year is Ronald Acuña Jr., with 11 homers and 22 steals in Atlanta’s first 52 games (through Saturday, May 27). The combination of what Acuña has already done this year with his rest-of-season projections from THE BAT X at FanGraphs suggests a 37-homer, 54-steal season is a realistic possibility. He recently had a stretch of homering in four straight games. He’s also had four multi-steal games. The last time Acuña was healthy over a full 162-game season was in 2019, when he hit 41 homers and stole 37 bases, coming a few steals short of joining one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball, the 40-homer/40-steals club, which has just four members. Jose Canseco was the first to get there, with 42 homers and 40 steals in 1988. Barry Bonds joined him in 1996, with the same number of steals and homers. Two years later, Alex Rodriguez hit 42 big flies and stole 46 bags. The last player to achieve the feat was Alfonso Soriano in 2006, when he hit 46 dingers and had 41 thefts. And that’s it. That’s the list of 40-40 players Acuña could join. As it is, he’s projected to comfortably reach 30 homers and 50 steals. That would put him in even more exclusive company as a member of the 30-HR/50-SB club, which includes just two players, Eric Davis and Barry Bonds. The version of Barry Bonds that accomplished this feat was the young, athletic coming-into-his-own Barry Bonds of the 1990 Pittsburgh Pirates as opposed to the veteran, colossal destroyer-of-baseballs Barry Bonds when he played with the San Francisco Giants later in his career. In 1990, the 25-year-old Bonds was among the best young players in the game, but he had not yet had his breakout season. The 1990 season was that breakout. He was an All-Star for the first time, NL MVP for the first time, won his first Gold Glove and first Silver Slugger. He led the National League in wRC+ (165) and WAR (9.9, per FanGraphs). He also hit 33 homers and stole 52 bases, which granted him entry into the exclusive 30-HR/50-SB Club with charter member Eric Davis. It should be noted that over in the American League that year, 31-year-old Rickey Henderson came close to joining Bonds and Davis by hitting 28 homers and stealing 65 bases. Four years earlier, Rickey had 28 homers and 87 steals in 1986. He was in a club of his own. The 1990 season was the only season in which Bonds stole 50 or more bases, but he went on to add four 30-30 seasons to his resume, including the aforementioned 40-40 season. When it came to hitting for power and stealing bases, the Bonds family cornered the market. Barry’s father, Bobby Bonds, had five 30-30 seasons, which included a 39-HR/43-SB season in 1973 that came tantalizingly close to being the first ever 40-40 season. The first player to ever hit 30 homers and steal 50 bases in a season was Eric Davis, who was an incredibly talented player with the Cincinnati Reds in the 1980s. Davis could do everything on a baseball field: crush mammoth home runs, steal bases at will, and make great plays on defense. Unfortunately, he was consistently limited by injuries that prevented him from ever playing in more than 135 games in a season and his single-season high was 562 plate appearances. Despite consistently missing time with injuries, Davis was an incredible player during a four-year stretch from 1986 to 1989 at ages 24 through 27. He averaged 93 runs scored, 31 homers, 91 RBI, and 46 steals while hitting .281/.377/.537 in 132 games played per year. His 148 wRC+ was third in baseball behind Wade Boggs and Will Clark for players with 2000 or more plate appearances. Only Darryl Strawberry hit more homers than Davis’ 124 and only Vince Coleman, Rickey Henderson, and Tim Raines stole more bases than Davis’ 186. In 1986, Davis hit 27 homers and stole 80 bases, which was impressive enough to earn him down-ballot MVP votes. The next season, he hit 37 homers and stole 50 bases, becoming the first player to hit 30 or more homers and steal 50 or more bases. That’s very close to the projected end-of-year stats for Ronald Acuña Jr., making Acuña the closest thing we have to Eric Davis in baseball today. Acuña even has a history of injuries the last couple years, but hopefully that is behind him. One final note on Eric Davis. At the peak of the power-hitting and base-stealing portion of his career, he had one of the most impressive “hidden” seasons of all-time. A “hidden” season is not confined by the calendar year, but instead stretches across two years, with some games played in one year and some played the next year. In the case of Eric Davis, from June 13, 1986, to June 8, 1987, his Cincinnati Reds played 162 games and he played in 143 of them. This is what he did: 143 G, 586 PA, 130 R, 114 RBI, 43 HR, 91 SB, .309/.406/.627, 172 wRC+. That’s 43 home runs and 91 steals (with just 10 caught stealing) in 143 games played. True, it didn’t happen in one calendar season, but it’s still incredibly impressive. Younger baseball fans of today can get a taste of Eric Davis by watching Ronald Acuña Jr. The post Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. Looking to Join Barry Bonds and Eric Davis in the 30-50 Club appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/05/30/atlantas-ronald-acuna-jr-looking-to-join-barry-bonds-and-eric-davis-in-the-30-50-club/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=atlantas-ronald-acuna-jr-looking-to-join-barry-bonds-and-eric-davis-in-the-30-50-club We have all dreamt of being an entrepreneur at some point. However, there are many myths about being an entrepreneur. One of these is that it is an easy job, requiring a lot of dedication. However, being an entrepreneur is not as easy as it sounds. There are also other myths about the business world. For instance, one of these claims is that being an entrepreneur requires you to leave your personal life. This article aims to debunk some common myths about entrepreneurship and startups. It also offers advice on how to deal with these individuals. Myth: Entrepreneurs Don’t Have Time for a Personal LifeIt has been said that many entrepreneurs have to sacrifice their personal lives to follow their dreams. This is often interpreted as suggesting that they should leave their personal lives. Entrepreneurs need to have a work-life balance. It is also essential for them to take breaks and manage their schedules. This can help them reduce their risk of burnout and increase their productivity. Most successful entrepreneurs have the necessary skills to take breaks and manage their schedules. Myth: Successful Entrepreneurs Have to Start YoungContrary to popular belief, most entrepreneurs reach success later in life. According to a survey conducted by entrepreneur magazine, the average age of an entrepreneur in the US is 40. Studies also debunk the myth that entrepreneurship is a young person’s game. It is more likely that an entrepreneur will reach success as they get older due to the connections and experience they have gained. Myth: Good Entrepreneurs Are Born, Not MadeMost people believe that successful entrepreneurs are individuals who are born with the gifts and talents required to become successful entrepreneurs. However, this is not the case, as most people can be successful entrepreneurs if they learn the necessary skills. Myth: Entrepreneurs Don’t Have BossesAlthough starting a business will indeed give you the freedom to do whatever you want, this doesn’t mean that you will be able to have absolute independence. Having solid connections is also crucial for entrepreneurs as it allows them to reach their goals. Myth: Only Extroverts Can Survive as EntrepreneursThe common perception of entrepreneurs is that they are outgoing and capable of networking. This is not always the case, as this is an entrepreneurship myth. Yes, being outgoing and personable are good traits to have as an entrepreneur. But introverts can also have these skills. The difference here is that they need time to recharge away from people before getting back to work. The post Common Entrepreneurship Myths Debunked first appeared on Louis DeTitto | Business. via Louis DeTitto | Business https://louisdetitto.com/common-entrepreneurship-myths-debunked/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=common-entrepreneurship-myths-debunked There is always a chance that you will get injured, whether you are an elite athlete or play sports for fun. Unfortunately, it can be hard to tell what injuries are and how to treat them.Let’s take a look at common sports injuries and their causes. 1. Patellofemoral Syndrome One of the most common injuries athletes get is the patella, also known as patellofemoral syndrome. A muscle imbalance, slip, or knee joint swelling can cause this condition. The patella is a part of the thigh bone and ends at the end of the femur. When a fall onto the knee causes swelling, it can affect the two major muscles that help with the movement of the kneecap. This imbalance can lead to more swelling, worsening the tracking problem. After a fall, rest and ice can help decrease swelling and pain. For people suffering from a knee injury, gentle exercises and stretches can help strengthen the inner and outer thigh muscles. 2. Shoulder Injury A shoulder injury is a type of sports injury caused by various factors. Some of these include strains, dislocations, and misalignments. The shoulder is the weakest joint in the body, and it gets injured due to the force it receives during activities. Many shoulder injuries occur because of a lack of strength, stabilization, and flexibility. Rest and icing are the first steps in treating shoulder injuries. 3. Tennis or Golf Elbow The tennis and golf elbow is a type of injury caused by repetitive actions. It can be referred to as an overuse injury. The repetitive motion can cause the tendons of the forearm to become inflamed, making certain hand or wrist movements painful. For athletes, one of the most common complaints is a lack of grip strength. The initial treatment for these injuries is rest and icing the affected area. Usually, a doctor will administer anti-inflammatory medication to help decrease the pressure on the spot. To gradually strengthen the muscles, a physical therapist can perform various exercises. 4. Hamstring Strain The hamstring is a muscle located on the back of the thigh. Unfortunately, it can become tight and susceptible to strains, which are also called pulled muscles. Poor stretching techniques and flexibility can lead to a hamstring tear. After a doctor has diagnosed a pulled hamstring, rest and icing are the first steps to treating the condition. Doing so can help decrease the pain and prevent it from recurring. 5. Sciatica The pain known as sciatica can travel down the leg or even to the feet. It can also be associated with burning and numbness. It can be seen in people who engage in activities such as tennis and golf that involve a lot of trunk rotation. A pinched nerve or a bulging disc is the most common cause of this condition. Rest, stretching, and lying on your stomach are the most effective ways to treat it. The post Most Common Sport Injuries first appeared on Louis DeTitto's Sports Blog. via Louis DeTitto's Sports Blog https://louisdetitto.net/most-common-sport-injuries/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=most-common-sport-injuries The New York Yankees, they of the $270 million dollar payroll and “Evil Empire” moniker, entered action on May 2nd in sole possession of last place in the AL’s Eastern Division. Two recent losses, one in which they would have needed a touchdown and two field goals to send the game into extras, and another in which a two run ninth inning Yankee lead was blown, quickly resulted in #FireBoone trending on social media. As you likely know, this not the first time we’ve seen that social media trend. I’m here to tell all fans, those who root for the Yankees and otherwise, two things. First, the days of Yankees ownership firing managers in the spring are long gone, so you should make your peace with Aaron Boone for now. Secondly, not only are the Yankees’ relative struggles no fault of Boone’s, but one can argue the team has overachieved during his five plus season tenure in pinstripes and should be given more than a little slack. To cover this with more nuance than we’ll find on sports radio and on social media, we’ll need to back up a bit. In 2017, the Yankees lost in the ALCS to the Astros, and somewhat controversially, fired then manager Joe Girardi. It was not controversial however to those of us who’d been paying attention. The 2017 Yankees went 18-26 in one run games in large part due to Girardi’s proclivity for saving his big bullpen arms for mop up duty* and using the staff’s number 11 and 12 pitchers in high leverage situations. This was one of a few reasons that even though the ’17 Yankees had both a powerhouse offense and pitching staff (second best in the AL in both runs per game and runs allowed per game) they only won 91 games on the season, despite a Pythagorean of 100-62. (*Aroldis Chapman made 42% of his appearances in games in which the Yankees led or trailed by three runs or more. 25% of his appearances were in games in which the Yankees led or trailed by four runs or more. Dellin Betances made 38% of his 66 appearances when the Yankees were leading or trailing by three or more runs as well.) Aaron Boone took over for Girardi in 2018 with a significantly regressed pitching staff that saw the team get 37 combined starts from Sonny Gray (86 ERA+) and Domingo Germán (75 ERA+). For comparative purposes, in 2017 six pitchers started at least 11 games for the Yanks and Masahiro Tanaka had the worst ERA+ at 95 – that’s how good the staff Girardi had was. The 2018 offense only had Aaron Judge for about two thirds of the season and there was only one lefty batter with a wRC+ over 100. (Didi Gregorius and only due to a scalding hot April – his wRC+ was actually below 100 from May through September.) Despite an arguably a lesser roster, the Yankees won 100 games under Boone in 2018, and finished the season by losing to the eventual champion Boston Red Sox in the ALDS. Boston, who had won 108 games in the regular season and went 11-3 in the playoffs, was not a team any other team should have expected to beat that season. And if you’re curious, with the same key bullpen pieces (Chapman, Betances and Chad Green) the Yankees went 23-17 in one run games in 2018. The 2019 Yankees started the season with Troy Tulowitzki – who was awful in 2017 and hadn’t played at all in 2018 – as their starting shortstop, and with Greg Bird and his three season OPS+ of 80 as their first baseman. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton played in 120 games combined on the season and again there was next to no production from left-handed bats (Mike Tauchman led team lefties with a 128 OPS+ but in less than 300 PA.) On the pitching side, almost half of the team’s games – 76 to be exact – were started by J.A. Happ, Germán and a rapidly declining C.C. Sabathia, all of whom had below average FIP’s on the season. Regardless, the team won 103 games and finished the postseason with a heartbreaking loss to the Houston Astros in the ALCS. Even extremely harsh critics would have trouble selling the notion that the Yankees didn’t get a plus performance from their manager in ’19. 2020, quite obviously, was an odd year for everybody, yet in the small sample size we do have, there aren’t too many criticisms that can be thrown towards the manager’s office. Tell me if this sounds familiar: Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton missed more than half of the team’s games and Brett Gardner’s 109 OPS+ was the best for a left-handed batter on the team. And although only playing against AL East and NL East teams, the Yankees went 33-27, then 4-3 in the playoffs. Combined that’s a 90-win pace over 162 with their two best players missing more than half the time and playing against good competition. The 2021 Yankees were not a good team. Although they had Judge and Stanton more or less full time, Anthony Rizzo’s 110 OPS+ was the only other one that wasn’t below league average among regulars. The team finished 10th in the AL in runs per game and even with Judge and Stanton, below league average in both SLG and total bases. It’s been a stretch since we’ve seen a Yankees offense as punchless as that ’21 group. The pitching was very good but often not good enough to offset the lack of run scoring and the team posted a Pythagorean record of 86 and 76. Yet, while playing in a division that had four teams that won more than 90 games, the Yankees actual record was 92-70, earning them a Wild Card berth. Again, and unless you want to blame the lack of hitting on the manager, it would be very hard to argue that Aaron Boone didn’t do a great job in 2021. In 2022, the good news for the manager was that the Yankees received 35.3 fWAR from position players. The bad news is almost one third of that – 11.5 to be exact – came from one player. It was far from an easy lineup to manage but again the team got a very good performance from the pitching staff which when combined with Judge’s otherworldly season, led to a 99-win regular season and another ALCS appearance, once again losing to the eventual champions from Houston. (And once again, no shame in that.) 2023 is still too small of a sample size to comprehensively assess anything, but since that doesn’t stop Boone’s critics, I’ll throw in my two cents anyway. The Yankees have had an almost comical level of players visiting the IL, including three fifths of the starting rotation, their center fielder, and say it with me: Judge and Stanton again. Additionally, the normally reliable bats that are in the lineup have been slumping lately, which when combined with the literal replacement players in the lineup, has led to the 24th lowest runs per game in MLB thus far in ’23. On the pitching side, again due to injuries, the team’s 6th, 7th and 8th starters have started 60% of the team’s games. Yet despite all of the above, the team’s record is 15-15 entering action on May 2nd. For some perspective, the juggernaut, World Series winning 2009 team was 14-16 after 30 games. Am I saying the 2023 Yankees are as good as the 2009 team and there’s no reason for concern? No, I’m not saying either of those things. I’m saying the injuries and lack of hitting are not the manager’s fault, and given Aaron Boone’s track record with the club, fans’ vitriol should be directed elsewhere. Because when we look at a larger sample size than 30 games – five plus seasons to be exact – Boone’s resume is both impressive and clearly better than his predecessor’s last five seasons working for the same GM and owner. In five plus seasons under Boone, the Yanks have averaged 97 wins per 162 games and have never finished below second place in a very tough division, winning the AL East twice. The team hasn’t missed the postseason with Boone as manager, has reached the ALCS twice, and has lost to the eventual World Series Champions twice. Which again, there’s no shame in losing to the 2018 Red Sox or the 2022 Astros – everyone else did too. That’s a resume that’s very hard to criticize, under any circumstances, but especially when compared to his predecessor. In the last five seasons managed by Girardi, the Yankees averaged 86 wins per 162 games with zero division titles and missed the postseason altogether in three of those five seasons. I’m confident in my position that many, perhaps most, Yankee fans don’t realize how much better the team has been since Boone took over, and again with the same people constructing the roster that Girardi had. Am I ready to put Boone with Huggins, McCarthy, Stengel and Torre in Yankees’ history? No, of course not. Fair or unfair, there is a big piece of hardware missing from Boone’s resume. That said, we need to avoid blaming the manager for things beyond his control, or for decisions and results in small sample sizes when much larger sample sizes exist. I’ve been around Yankees fans long enough to know that isn’t likely to happen, but I’m going to keep saying it anyway. The post Do Not Fire Aaron Boone appeared first on Off The Bench. via Off The Bench https://www.offthebenchbaseball.com/2023/05/08/do-not-fire-aaron-boone/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=do-not-fire-aaron-boone |